Rebuilding the Grays

[yuda]

This season I've really gone all-in on the rebuild. Obviously it started over the last couple of seasons, but I decided in most cases to play young players who seem ready (or close) if it looks like they have a chance to be contributors later, instead of 30+ AAAA types or over-the-hill former stars.

I probably should have started this back in spring training, but here we are.

[yuda]

Well, I never quite got to this last season, but I'm in a good place now to do a retrospective of the 2078 season. With a little luck I'll be able to carry it forward from here.

Today, I'll start with a roundup of the players who were exclusively starting pitchers at the major-league level.

Starting pitchers

Matthew Barrow; 35 years old; LHP; 13 GS, 2-5, 5.36

Barrow made the rotation this year entirely because of his leadership abilities. He’s one of the team captains and I expected a young team likely to lose a lot of games needed some of that. (Interestingly, the game only counts him as a captain when he’s in the starting rotation; he’s with the other high-leadership guys if he’s a reliever.)

Unfortunately, he was really limited by his back this season (he had 10 day-to-day back injuries this year). He started 13 games, but only managed 45.1 innings (plus another 6 games/37.1 innings on rehab assignments). By comparison, he also started 13 games last year but managed 74.1 innings in them. And even beyond the repeated back injuries, he seems to have lost a lot of his effectiveness, as his strikeouts are way down from his peak. I don’t really want to demote or release him, so I find myself hoping he retires this offseason.

Barrow has played in 14 major-league seasons, and was acquired way back in the 2nd round of the 2061 draft.

Juan Martinez; 25 years old; RHP; 27 GS, 7-13, 4.33

Juan Martinez just finished his rookie season throwing 178.2 innings of 4.33 ball. He has a slightly above-average fastball and slightly below-average curveball and changeup. He has the endurance to soak up a lot of innings as long as he doesn’t get shelled too badly. He holds runners reasonably well.

All of that said, he’s probably about as good as he’s going to get.  He probably has a future as a back-of-the-rotation / swing man type for us, maybe bouncing between AAA and the majors. But I won’t be counting on anything better than this year’s performance, which was almost exactly replacement level.

Martinez was acquired as a scouting discovery in 2070. 2078 was his first major-league experience.

Gilbert Newcomb; 24 years old; LHP; 32 GS, 12-10, 3.18

Gilbert Newcomb was our opening-day starter, and he pitched up to that honor on the year, throwing more than 200 innings of very good ball. It was a big step forward from 2077 for him (7-18, 5.05).

His best pitch right now is his excellent sinker, but he also has a plus changeup that scouts believe can become truly outstanding with a little more work. Unfortunately his other pitches (a curveball and circle change) are somewhat below average, and Newcomb hasn’t shown much to suggest they’ll get a lot better. Between the pitch repertoire, his middling stamina, and the fact that he throws left-handed, it’s possible his long-term role will be in the bullpen. Either way, I expect him to be on the team for years to come.

2078 was Newcomb’s second year in the majors. He was acquired via trade from Massachusetts in 2076, and was originally selected in the first round of the 2075 draft.

Sergio Olvera; 28 years old; RHP; 25 GS, 9-8, 3.95

Sergio Olvera has reached his ceiling of back-of-the-rotation starter. He’s pretty consistently contributed above-replacement-level but below-MLB-average performances every year, and that’s more or less what I expect of him every time I have to send him out there. His ERA was a touch better this year than in past seasons, but that was almost entirely driven by BABIP improvements and a better defense behind him.

Olvera offers a slightly above average fastball and sinker; the fastball appears to be as good as it’s going to get, but he may have some potential to refine the sinker a little bit more. His splitter is more or less average, and he has a changeup that he mixes in but that he sometimes struggles to differentiate from his fastball enough.

Olvera has appeared in four major-league seasons at this point. He was originally a 9th-round selection in the 2070 draft.

Frank Williams; 22 years old; RHP; 31 GS, 6-12, 4.93

Frank Williams looks a lot like most of the other guys on this list (a back of the rotation arm) if you just consider 2078’s performance, but he has a legitimate chance to develop some more and become a solid starting pitcher. His performance in July and August is perhaps a hint at his ceiling: 71.1 innings in 11 starts, going 3-3, 2.77.

Williams has a well-developed plus-plus changeup, which he couples with a plus fastball. He complements those pitches with a slider and splitter that are just average right now, but which have the potential to also develop into plus pitches. Beyond that, he’s shown some leadership ability, and could eventually turn into a team captain.

2078 was Williams’s first full season in the majors, after a September callus in 2077. He was acquired via trade from Massachusetts in 2076, and was originally a second-round selection in the 2075 draft. I don’t know why his HTML player card includes somebody else’s career information from the 2060s. Perhaps he was actually drafted as an 8-year-old by Idaho, spent some time as a hitting prospect in their system as he matured, and then went to high school to convert to pitching.

Tomorrow we'll look at swing men and relievers.

[yuda]

Swing men

Oliver Rivera; 23 years old; RHP; 38 G, 24 GS, 10-11, 2 sv, 4.61

You could argue that Oliver Rivera should be included among the starters, but I’m keeping him here because I hadn’t originally planned for him to spend much time in the majors this year (and certainly not the rotation). That said, he held his own for most of the year until he slowed down a bit in September (1-4, 5.82). Hopefully that was a one-time blip.

Rivera already has an above-average fastball and splitter, and a close-to-average curveball. The upside here is that scouts thing all three of them can turn into plus-plus pitches. He also throws a changeup that he seems to have absolutely no aptitude for, and I wish he’d stop.

Rivera grew into a stable presence in the rotation this year. With another step forward next year he has a chance to become a star.

2078 was Rivera’s first (almost) full season in the majors, after a September callup in 2077. He was selected (by Virginia) second overall in the 2077 draft.

Antonio Sanchez; 30 years old; LHP; 60 G, 5 GS, 2-8, 1 sv, 3.01

Antonio Sanchez has been a surprisingly stable presence on the team given that he’s a flyball pitcher with a penchant for giving up the long ball (about 1.25 per nine innings over his career). Despite that, he’s managed to register a 3.34 ERA over almost 400 innings. I don’t really count on him to contribute much — and at his age, he won’t be around for the long haul — but he’s been a useful arm to have on the team.

Sanchez was a scouting discovery all the way back in 2064, but he didn’t make the major leagues until 2076. He now has 3 years experience in the majors.

Juan Torres; 25 years old; RHP; 39 G, 5 GS, 3-7, 4.39

Juan Torres spent 2077 as a starter, and was in the rotation for April again this year, but he struggled and got moved to the bullpen. He’s got a plus fastball and a plus-plus slider, so he should be a quality bullpen arm at minimum for a while. Scouts think his curveball has potential, but is not very good right now; how well that develops will tell the difference between whether he can stick in the rotation or stay in the pen.

2078 was Torres’s second major-league season. He was acquired via trade from Utah in 2076, and was originally a third-round pick in the 2072 draft.

[yuda]

Relievers

Jose Carmona; 24 years old; RHP; 6.2 IP, 1-0, 5.40

Jose Carmona is a control pitcher first and foremost. He’s got an average fastball and average slider, but the fact that he can put them where he wants may help keep him around in the majors. His bigger issue will be the relative lack of stamina.

Carmona only had a September callus this year, and had one in 2076 as well. (I’m not sure why I didn’t call him up in 2077). He was acquired in the third round of the 2074 draft.

Dan Downs; 26 years old; RHP; 74.1 IP, 5-1, 4.60

Dan Downs has four average-or-better pitches and decent stamina, but unfortunately he also has a habit of serving up some meatballs and only average control. I’m guessing he’ll spend years around the fringe of our pitching staff, but I doubt he’ll ever turn into somebody I count on.

2078 was Downs’s third year in the majors (the previous two he was a starting pitcher). He was drafted in the 8th round in 2070.

Luis Granados; 28 years old; RHP; 12 IP, 0-1, 6.75

Luis Granados is more or less a scrub. He pitched some for us in 2076 (including 6 starts), none last season, and a September callup this season. There’s not really any reason to believe he’ll ever be better than he’s been (which isn’t good).

Granados was a scouting discovery way back in 2066.

Brian Hughes; 27 years old; RHP; 79.2 IP, 8-11, 34 sv, 5.54

Brian Hughes was supposed to be a shutdown reliever by now. Scouts though he could have a generational curveball to pair with his very good cutter. And while that cutter is indeed very good, the curveball is merely a little bit above average.

Somewhat puzzling is the step back he took this season (he was considerably more effective the two years previous). TBD if it was a down year or if it’s the beginning of a slide.

Hughes was a first-round selection in the 2070 draft. I don’t know why I took a relief pitcher in the first round either.

Hector Pacheco; 35 years old; LHP; 16.2 IP, 0-1, 4.86

Hector Pacheco was a very effective starting pitcher in Virginia for years — he was twice an all star, and twice finished second in the Yim voting. He was always a fireballer with just decent movement and control. Unfortunately, a combination of age, injury, and OOTP version migration robbed him of just enough of both of those.

Pacheco was my first-round pick back in 2064.

Júlio Rodríguez; 24 years old; RHP; 67 IP, 2-2, 4 sv, 4.30

Rodriguez probably shouldn’t be pitching in the major leagues. He’s okay against righties, but lefties hit him pretty hard (248/344/431 in 2078). And he doesn’t seem to have much room to grow.

He was a sixth-round pick in 2072, so replacement-level-ish performance is probably a bonus anyway.

Alejandro Salazar; 28 years old; RHP; 49.1 IP, 2-1, 3 sv, 2.55

Alejandro Salazar is actually a two-way player for us (he’ll appear later in the infielders section as well). He started as an infield prospect, showed some propensity as a pitcher, and we converted him. But then a torn labrum moved him back to trying to make the show as a second baseman.

He had struggled with his control for years, but that seems to have taken a step forward in 2078. I don’t know if he’ll be much of a contributor for long, but he’s not a terrible option as a last guy on the roster.

Salazar was a second-round pick in 2071.

Jose Soliz; 30 years old; RHP; 21.1 IP, 0-0, 0.84

Soliz was lights out in April, and then for some reason I sent him down to the minors. (I wanted to try him as a starter maybe? He was 7-7, 3.10 in AAA as a starter. But ultimately I have no idea; I don’t remember at all.) He’s a bit old, and doesn’t have great ratings, so I doubt he’s part of the long-term plan. but now I’m kind of curious what he could have done for the full season. He was solid in 2077 too (3.09 ERA in 75.2 big-league innings)

Soliz was a scouting discovery in 2064.

Dave Williams; 24 years old; RHP; 17.2 IP, 0-2, 2 sv, 3.06

Williams has a great sinker and cutter, and if he can figure out how to control them better (currently a 3 control rating, but a 6 potential) he might be the shutdown reliever that Hughes was supposed to be. He was pitching pretty well in June and July when I called him up, but then he sprained his elbow and missed the rest of the season. He’ll be one to watch next year.

Williams was a third-round pick in 2076.

[yuda]

So, that's the pitching staff. It seems like Rivera, Newcomb, and Frank Williams can be a good rotation core as soon as next season (thank you, Tim, for trading me two of them). Unfortunately, after those three, it looks like mostly hoping to ride a hot hand for the near future (I'm not looking at prospects here, but there's not a ton in the way of starting pitchers who are close).

In the bullpen, Hughes, Dave Williams, Torres, and Carmona are a good start, but I'd like at least one of them to take a big step forward next year if we're going to compete.

On the whole, I might need the talent fairy to visit (or some really well-developed guys to turn up in the draft) if I want to turn the corner in 2079.

[MassGM]

So, that's the pitching staff. It seems like Rivera, Newcomb, and Frank Williams can be a good rotation core as soon as next season (thank you, Tim, for trading me two of them).

It's been a good trade for both of us.

[yuda]

It really has. i expected Jesse Morris to still be pitching well (and he has), but i was pleasantly surprised to see Tim White still contributing.

[yuda]

Catchers

Kieran John; 30 years old; LHB; 187 PA, 262/348/348

Kieran John is on his way out with the team — by the end of the season he was clearly the third catcher — and is none too happy about it. That said, he’s 30 and has shown declining rate stats for the last few years. He’ll still be fine if pressed into service, but at this point he’s just kind of an all-around average hitter who’s a good-enough defensive catcher.

John has appeared in 8 seasons for the club, after being a fifth-round pick back in 2069.

Luis Martinez; 22 years old; LHB; 354 PA, 277/342/474, 4 sb

Luis Martinez is the guy who took over Kieran John’s playing time by the end of the season. He’s not the catcher John is defensively (in fact, his arm is probably a mild liability), but he hits a fair bit better with some pop against RHP. He’s got a harsh platoon split, but I don’t mind that much in a catcher, as they need a lot of rest anyway. He’s also a surprisingly good base stealer for a catcher.

Martinez may stick as a catcher for a while, or he may ultimately move to first base. That’s largely going to depend on the development of guys in the minors.

2078 was Martinez’s first major-league action. He was acquired via trade from New Jersey back in spring training, and was originally selected in the fourth round of the 2073 draft.

Adam Randall; 26 years old; RHB; 181 PA, 225/254/358

Adam Randall is a pretty typical backup catcher: he’s solid behind the plate and he has a little gap power when hitting. His eye is a bit of a liability though. For now, he’s fine in the platoon partner/backup role, although in an ideal world I’d find an upgrade there. 2078 was a bit of a down year for him (he typically at least keeps his OBP above .300).

Randall has appeared in 5 seasons, playing a lot the last three. He was a third-round pick in 2073.

[yuda]

Outfielders

Yeah, I know most people would do infielders next, but that’s the biggest group by far so I’m going to do them next week.

Al Chambers; 25 years old; RHB; 4 PA, 250/250/500

Al Chambers is a defensive specialist. He can play all three outfield positions well, and he seems to have the tools to play first base or second base as well (though he’s not rated in either right now).

He’s a leader in the clubhouse, but his AAA career stats of 250/313/330 illustrate his limitations as a hitter. He may bounce onto the back of the roster here and there as players get hurt, but I doubt he’ll ever stick around for long.

Chambers has had September callups in both 2077 and 2078. He was an 11th round selection in 2072.

Danny Doel; 25 years old; LHB; 488 PA, 263/293/359, 16 sb

Danny Doel is a pretty good reserve outfielder who’s been pressed into starting duty for now. He’s mostly a singles/doubles type hitter who doesn’t strike out much (and doesn’t walk much either). He’s well-rated in left and center field, and could play RF in a pinch (but doesn’t have much of an arm).

Doel has been in the majors for 5 years (the last three playing more or less full time). He was a third-round pick in 2071.

Tomas Franco; 23 years old; LHB; 66 PA, 241/333/310, 3 sb

Franco has a lot in common with Al Chambers. The main differences are that they hit from opposite sides of the plate (and Franco’s platoon split is bigger) and that Franco already has ratings at first and second base. It’s unlikely that both of them will ever be on the roster at the same time (outside of September).

2078 was Franco’s first major-league experience (he actually started the year in AA). He was a scouting discovery in 2071.

Stewart Gaston; 23 years old; LHB; 553 PA, 248/306/464

We turned down offers for Gaston in spring training, and that’s proven to be the right decision. He hits the ball well (with some power), doesn’t strike out much (but seems likely to improve more there), is fast, and fields well. I’d like to see him refine his eye a bit, but I could live with it if all he does is hit for a bit more contact to push the OBP up. Gaston has a little bit of a platoon split, but it’s not bad.

He can play all three outfield positions well (albeit without much experience in LF) and might wind up in any of them in the future depending on what other parts we have. This year he played right field, and he’s a contender for the Matthews award there.

Gaston got a September callup in 2077 before making the team this spring. He was my first-round pick in 2075 (out of college). His history shows that he was drafted out of high school by California in 2073, released, went to college, and came back out in 2075, but I’m not sure whether that’s accurate. If so, it’s certainly interesting.

Octávio Gutiérrez; 22 years old; RHB; 462 PA, 292/323/429, 35 sb

Gutierrez played significant time at all three outfield spots as well as first base this year (his lowest innings total among the four spots was 157.1 in CF). He can play all of the spots well, and in fact could probably work at any infield position too, although he has no experience at 2B, 3B, or SS.

With the bat, he’s more or less what his line looks like: solid contact hitter, just OK eye, more gap power than home run power. He’s a very good base stealer and baserunner. I’m not sure what his ideal position will be on the club; perhaps center field, or maybe I try to teach him a middle infield position in spring training.

2078 was Gutierrez’s second full season in the major leagues (though he played a lot more this year). He was a scouting discovery in 2072.

Steve Hull; 22 years old; RHB; 75 PA, 264/293/542, 3 sb

Steve Hull was the #1 overall pick in this year’s draft. He already hits for contact and power and can steal bases. Scouts believe he can grow in all three areas, improve his eye, strike out less, and play quality defense at nearly any position. The main questions around Hull will be what position I ultimately decide to play him at, and whether or not he can stay healthy (he had two injuries this season, although neither seems likely to be the chronic type).

Don Nieves; 25 years old; RHB; 553 PA, 200/275/333, 31 sb

Don Nieves started in CF all year, and has a shot at the Matthews Award for his troubles. That said, while he’s a very good defensive outfielder and baserunner, his bat is a bit exposed as an every day player. He has a little bit of pop (13 HR), though, and as a fourth outfielder should be a good fit.

Nieves played some in the big leagues in each of 2076 and 2077. He was my first-round pick back in 2072.

José Román; 24 years old; LHB; 15 PA, 455/600/818

Roman has a pretty good eye and solid swing against RHP, but unfortunately for him he can’t pick the ball up well at all from LHP. This likely limits him to a platoon role at most, and he doesn’t hit for too much power. His AAA line from this year (273/363/416) might be a realistic ceiling.

Unfortunately, while he’s sure-handed and has a good arm, he isn’t rangy enough to handle center field. The lack of power makes him questionable for a corner outfield spot. Maybe he’ll fit in somewhere. If he can either develop a little more vs. RHP or close his platoon gap that will help.

Roman got cups of coffee in 2076 and 2077 as well as this year. He was a scouting discovery in 2070.

[yuda]

Infielders

Héctor Bruno; 36 years old; RHB; 269 PA, 221/254/340

Hector Bruno is one of the team captains, and my suspicion is that he does help hold together a team full of young players. He’s a sure-handed infielder with just okay range and an okay arm - basically, good as a second baseman, average at best at shortstop, and can play third base in a pinch.

He spent time starting at both second base and shortstop this season (we had a bunch of injuries in the infield and everybody got moved all over). His bat isn’t great, although he can still hit lefties a bit at this stage in his career. The ideal role at this point is probably utility infielder and team captain from the bench, but we’ll have to see how he handles that morale-wise next season.

Bruno has appeared in 16 seasons for the Grays. He was my first-round pick in 2061.

Tim Burton; 25 years old; SH; 303 PA, 188/300/226

Tim Burton is a defense-first infielder. He plays gold-glove quality defense at both SS and 3B, and I have no reason to believe he couldn’t do so at the other infield spots if called upon. He ostensibly switch hits, but he’s much better from the left side of the plate

Burton is also a strong leader, so he potentially has a long-term role on this team. That role should be from the bench, though. It’s possible he’ll see a season or two as a no-hit starting SS depending on how other players age and develop, though.

He made his major-league debut last season. He was originally selected in the 7th round of the 2074 draft.

Luis Chavez; 31 years old; RHB; 6 PA, 333/333/333

Luis Chavez doesn’t have the arm to play the left side of the infield, doesn’t have the bat to force his way into the lineup, isn’t fast, and is on the wrong side of 30. He’s an injury fill-in call-up only.

2078 was actually his major-league debut. He was a scouting discovery way back in 2063.

Jorge Cruz; 26 years old; RHB; 626 PA, 238/283/344, 17 sb

Jorge Cruz probably has the defensive skills to play anywhere on the diamond other than catcher. He’s spent time in our system in the outfield, at second base, and at third base. He can hit a little bit, and with some gap power, but isn’t really special, so his best position is probably utility player.

That said, he’s been Virginia’s primary third baseman for the last season and a half. He’s been a smidgen above replacement level, so this is an obvious upgrade opportunity.

He’s played in five major-league seasons (and has primarily been in the majors since 2076). He was a sixth-round pick in 2069.

Kane David; 30 years old; RHB; 103 PA 290/330/366

Kane David was originally drafted as a two-way player, and spent his first couple years in the minors both pitching and playing some shortstop. He showed real promise as a pitcher, so I had him focus there. Unfortunately, the control never developed so I ultimately moved him back to the infield. Somewhere along the way his infield range had dipped enough that middle infield wasn’t viable anymore, so he became a corner infielder.

For a couple of years I had hopes that he’d develop into a starting third baseman, but that never really happened. Instead he settled in as a backup and pinch hitter. His days with the team are probably coming to a close, although to a certain extent that depends on the development of younger players.

David has played in 7 major-league seasons. He was a third-round pick in 2066.

Santiago Dávila; 24 years old; RHB; 283 PA, 180/258/286, 5 sb

Davila’s another guy who can’t hit all that much, but he’s fast and can play a bunch of different positions. He’s got a shot at a utility role in the future, but we’ll see how he comes back from the ruptured achilles he suffered in August. I do like that he’s one of the few prankster personality types in my system.

Davila was a rookie this year. He was a scouting discovery in 2070.

Ed Gamblin; 25 years old; LHB; 552 PA, 251/292/438, 1 sb

Ed Gamblin seems to be rated well enough to be a platoon player (though he shouldn’t be allowed to face LHP very often), and in his good years he’s been worth a win or two. Still, I’d like a bit better eye from him, and more consistency. He’s a very streaky player: he only hit 3 HR in July and August combined (and he was not injured). On a great team, he’d probably be a fringe player, but we are not a great team, so an upgrade at 1B is not our top priority. Plus, at 25, he might still improve a hair.

Gamblin has played in 5 seasons for Virginia. He was a first-round pick in 2074.

Jon McMillan; 30 years old; RHB; 80 PA, 270/313/338

Jon McMillan can play a bunch of positions on defense and won’t kill you with the bat (plus he has a little pop). That said, the promise he showed in part-time duty in 2073 (258/333/522, 13 HR in about 200 PA) is pretty clearly in the rear view mirror. His role going forward is AAA filler and occasional injury callus.

McMillan has appeared in 7 major-league seasons. He was a second-round pick in 2067.

Bobby McNeiledge; 31 years old; RHB; 167 PA, 189/261/257

McNeiledge is an elite defender (Matthews Award at SS in 2077) who struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness at the plate in 2078 (and he was never a great hitter to begin with). If he can hit like he did in 2076-77, his glove is enough to make him worth a couple of wins a season. If he hits like 2078, he won’t get many more chances in the future.

McNeiledge has appeared in seven major-league seasons. He was a fifth-round pick in 2066.

David Russell; 23 years old; RHB; 6 PA, 000/000/000

David Russell is hoping to grow up to be Bobby McNeiledge.

This cup of coffee was his first big-league experience. He was a fifth-round pick in 2073.

Alejandro Salazar; 28 years old; RHB; 191 PA, 192/250/282, 3 sb

Alejandro Salazar is a two-way player for us (also discussed in the relief pitchers section). He’s a fringe contributor in both phases of the game, though, and will have to claw his way onto the roster every season.

[yuda]

It seems like this team is pretty well-positioned in the outfield. To the extent that I'm now considering moving one of the guys who has the infield defense ratings to pull it off to second base. But there's not much in the infield, and catcher is just OK. On top of that, I'm picking second in the draft and had the worst pythagorean record in 2078.

Maybe most of the guys who are developing take another step forward and we flirt with a .500 record in 2079. Or maybe players stagnate and the pipeline is still a couple of years away and we don't go anyway. Hard to say. I'm certainly eager for the season to roll over so I can see who looks promising.