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Topics - MassGM

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Trades / Massachusetts - Florida Trade
« on: February 05, 2020, 11:37:50 AM »
Massachusetts sends:
SP Jimmy McGee  (Not to be confused with Jimmy McGill of Better Call Saul fame)
C Cesar Rosales

Florida sends:
SS Bob Perkins

Thanks LT for the communication and the deal.  Good luck with these guys.

Free Agent/NYSL Claims / Massachusetts signs P Dave March, Hoboken Heroes
« on: February 12, 2019, 07:24:41 AM »
Originally, I had a different player, but I'm modifying the subject to this guy.

Assign to R league please.

Trades / Massachusetts - Louisiana
« on: February 11, 2019, 09:21:02 PM »
Massachusetts sends:
P Pepe Carrillo

Louisiana sends:
OF Bullboy Shabecque

Thanks Ben.  Good luck with Carrillo.

Please assign to my AAA team.

Trades / Massachusetts - North Carolina deal
« on: February 11, 2019, 01:59:30 PM »
Massachusetts sends:
P Alfonso Gonzalez
OF Curt Garrett

North Carolina sends:
OF Mark Stokes

Good luck Koo.

Chappy, I'll put Gonzalez and Garrett in DFA when I export next and I'll post some instructions in the Instructions Board

League Press Releases / 75 for 75 Pitchers
« on: January 07, 2019, 06:48:38 AM »
Unfortunately, life has gotten busier for me so I haven't been able to close out this series.  I keep hoping to have a bit of extra time, but I don't see a break coming.  Now it's been a couple of sim seasons beyond season #75 and the results are less and less fresh as we move forward. 

I've had the player rankings done, but I haven't been able to do the little analysis write-up piece.  At this point I'm just going to post what I do have though.

1) James Yim * 2003 - 2021
In addition to being the top starting pitcher, Yim also has, in my opinion, the best single season ever recorded by a starting pitcher in NPBL history.  The candidates are:

The thing that makes Yim’s 2007 season so outstanding is not the fact that he is the best-of-all-time in any one category, but rather the fact that he is near to the top in many categories. 
Most wins in a season
31 – Carlos Gallegos 2064
30 – James Yim 2007
30 – Kevin Smith 2029
Most strikeouts in a season
445 – Steven Williams 2003
428 – Steven Williams 2005
375 – James Yim 2007
375 – Steven Williams 2008
Lowest ERA in a season (min 200 IP)
1.05 - Edgardo Castillo 2004
1.20 - Andy Dwyer 2062
1.24 – James Yim 2007
Lowest WHIP in a season (min 200 IP)
0.62 – James Yim 2011
0.64 – James Yim 2008
0.66 – David Echegaray 2015
0.67 – Chad Schmidt 2022
0.68 – James Yim 2007
0.68 – David Echedgaray 2014

2) Andy Dwyer 2057 - 2075
Hypothesis: There were more great pitchers in NPBL’s early days as opposed to “modern times”.  If this hypothesis is true, then Andy Dwyer represents a bit of an anomaly as a modern day pitcher with the talent of an early-day pitcher.  In order to test this hypothesis, I’ve compiled the number of seasons from the top 75 pitchers and grouped them by decade:

Note that the decades on either end of the spectrum are hampered.  For instance, it’s possible to have an outstanding pitcher from 2000 that did not make the top 75 list due to the fact that he was already an advanced age when the league began.  Likewise, a rookie in 2075 is unlikely to make the top 75 list even if it is evident he will be on the list once he accumulates years of statistics.  Also, the 2070s are even further hampered by the fact that only 6 years are recorded as opposed to the full 10 years from the other decades. 
Nonetheless, I think it’s fair to say that the hypothesis does not hold true.  The number of top 75 pitchers’ seasons hold a near bell-curve with the 2030s being the top of the curve.  However, if we were to modify the hypothesis to say that there were more superb pitchers in NPBL’s early days, then I would measure this hypothesis using the top 10 pitcher seasons

In this case, it’s very possible to conclude that the early-day pitchers are more plentiful, with half of the top 10 made up of pitchers from the 00’s and 10’s (Yim, Echegaray, E Castillo, Turner, & Lamela), and Dwyer being the only contributor to the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s.  If you think the explanation for this lies within the created superstars, you’d be incorrect as Ryan Turner is the only created superstar pitcher in the top 10.
This is interesting to compare/contrast with the ebbs and flows of NPBL run production.  All leagues go through some periods that are more offensively heavy or predominately defensive and the NPBL is no exception.  The graphs below show that the early decades of the NPBL were indeed pitching-heavy before an offensive spike in the 2030s.  Since around 2035, there has been a slow and steady decline of offensive production to the point where the league is almost as run-scarce as its ever been.

3) Todd Castillo * 2028 - 2041
In 2040, the Idaho Spuds had two top 10 pitchers on its pitching staff: Todd Castillo and Wayne Beaman.  It was one of only 4 years where 2 top 10 pitchers played the whole year for the same team. 

4) David Echegaray * 2003 - 2026

5) Edgardo Castillo * 2001 - 2018

6) Kevin Smith 2019 - 2036

7) Ryan Turner * 2001 - 2016

8 ) Ed Hansen * 2031 - 2048

9) Wayne Beaman * 2030 - 2048

10) Ben Lamela * 2008 - 2025

League Press Releases / 75 for 75 - Right Field
« on: August 17, 2018, 07:30:44 AM »
1) Ron Guinan * 2019 - 2031
Guinan is most famous for his propensity to land on the disabled list.  I found this old player card which details player history through 2029.  The injuries included:
Injured on 4/26/2022 with a Fractured Hand, out for 6 weeks...
Injured on 4/26/2023 with a Strained Back, out for 2 weeks...
Injured on 7/10/2023 with a Dislocated Shoulder, out for 2 weeks...
Injured on 6/3/2024 with a Broken Hand, out for 4 weeks...
Injured on 9/3/2025 with a Strained Hamstring Muscle, out for 3 weeks...
Injured on 4/12/2026 with a Bruised Ribs, out for one week...
Injured on 6/13/2027 with a Scratched Cornea Eye, out for 1-2 weeks...
Injured on 8/8/2027 with a Fractured Knee, out for 4-5 weeks...
Injured on 9/8/2028 with a Broken Jaw, out for 4 weeks...
Ultimately, the injuries caught up with him
There is no bigger story in baseball this week.  The NPBL's single-season Home Run king, Ron Guinan, is done. 

The 33-year-old surefire hall-of-famer, who hit an NPBL record 62 homers in 2028 and has hammered 50 or more bombs in each of the past 3 seasons, destroyed his back making a diving catch on September 3rd against the Rhode Island Reds.  Guinan, who had a reputation for being brittle, was batting .348 with 42 homers and 115 RBI so far this year and was looking for his 4th-straight 50 homer and 7th straight 100-RBI season.  He made the retirement official 3 days later.
The early retirement means that Guinan holds the distinction of having the best final season of a career.  The five best send-off seasons are

2) Stone Nichols * 2048 - 2060
It may come as a surprise to some to see Guinan ranked ahead of Nichols.  It’s very close between the two former Virginia Gray right fielders. 

Ultimately, what it came down to in my scoring system is that Guinan had a better YOPDI score – by a very slight margin.  Both outfielders had 9 seasons as the top RF and both outfielders also had two additional seasons ranked in the top ten.  Guinan was the second best RF in 2023 and the third best in 2021, while Nichols ranked 6th in both 2048 and 2058.
John Yuda, the manager of both Guinan and Nichols ranked Nichols ahead of Guinan.  My guess is that he did so due to the fact that Guinan was injury prone and often frustratingly found on the disabled list.  However, he was in the lineup often enough to put up statistics that carried him to the top of the RF class.

3) Héctor Vásquez 2056 - 2073
Vasquez was a part of the 2063-2067 Pennsylvania Freedom dynasty that won 4 championships in 5 years.  As such, Vasquez is one of 47 players that have 4 rings.  There are an additional 9 players with more championships than 4:

  • 6 - Issac Phillips 3B #17 – Won 5 championships for the Washington Griffins between 2018 and 2026.  Then was traded to the Louisiana Blaze and picked up one more in 2029.
  • 5 Carlos Horizon SP #30 – Championships with three different clubs: Kansas (2023), Mississippi (2030,2031,2033) and New Jersey (2042).
Plus the following players that won 5 championships for the Washington Griffins between 2018 and 2026.
  • J.L. Carrillo SP #138
  • Roy Ferrer RP
  • Truman Wagner
  • James Darby
  • Mikel Fleming
  • Joseph Albee
  • Edward Klein

4) Aquilino Castillanos * 2022 - 2043
Which is the greatest team in the history of the NPBL?  My pick would be Aquilino Castillanos’ 2034 Minnesota team.  They were the NPBL champion with the most regular season wins (118).  The 2019 Washington Griffins had the most wins (119), but they failed to win the championship.  The team with the best Pythagorean record (123-39) was the 2021 Washington Griffins (who did win the championship).
There have been 6 teams that have scored 1000 or more runs in a season

The best defensive teams (i.e. least runs allowed)

And the best run differential:

Run differential sees the same 2034 Minnesota team at the top of the list. 
On the flip side, the worst team in the history of the NPBL comes from the same year.  The 2034 Nevada team had the most losses in history (32-130, tied with 2028 Hawaii) and the worst run differential (-572).

5) Larry Sears * 2014 - 2035
Larry Sears was a top 5 pick (#3) in the 2014 draft by Marcus Shuter of the Utah Scorpions.  He was drafted just after Bill Worm (C #4) and Sanford Powers (3B #4).  He joins 19 total right fielders on the 75/75 list that were drafted in the top 5.  Right fielders on the list are, more than any other position needed to be drafted in the first round.  Of the list of 75, 48 were drafted in the first round.

As for drafting in the top 5, Marcus Shuter had moderate success.  In all, he had 7 draft picks in the top 5.  Two of the picks were big hits: Sears and Felton Olney (CF #3).  One other (Wenjie Laverick CF #44) exceeded expectations.  Three others were ranked, but did not meet expectations: Terry Macias (RF #62), Dacio Herrara (3B #57), and Herme Moreira (LF #73).  Finally, one player (Terry McClain) did not make the 75/75 list.  Under the quantifiable draft score system (explained in CF #6), Marcus Shuter has a score of 43.26 (for his top 5 picks alone).  Using this scoring system and ranking ONLY the top 5 picks, the top ranked drafter is easily John Heinz.

The following chart shows owners scores when separated by the various draft categories.  Doing so allows us to see exactly where many owners’ strengths and weaknesses lie with respect to drafting.  For example, it’s clear that Fred Kroner and John Yuda get the most out of their second round picks.  Those two are far, far ahead of the pack.  Meanwhile, that is a true weakness for me (Tim Veenstra).  It turns out that I’ve had only 5 second round draft picks that have exceeded expectations, and 56 picks that did not make a 75/75 list!

6) Cliff Butter * 2017 - 2035
Butter spent his career between 4 teams: Washington (2017-2020), Kansas (2021-2026), Idaho (2027) and Utah (2028-2035).  Butter would play LF, CF and RF.  But at each stop, and for nearly his entire career, Butter’s outfield mates were ranked in the 75/75 list, and oftentimes were Hall of Famers themselves.

What was the greatest outfield of all time?  Looking at the same measurements covered in the excerpt on the greatest infield of all time (SS #9): tvSTAT, WAR, YOPDI, 75/75 Rank:

What a close call!  It wasn’t until I color coded the table above that I made a decision and my vote goes for 2052 Virginia.  Having the three categories with a shade of green overcomes the one category that shows red.

7) Tony Bustamante * 2036 - 2061
Bustamante had the longest career in the history of the NPBL

A lot of Hall of Famers (*) on that list.  If you can find a guy who could play for 23+ years, you stand a good chance he’ll be a HoFer… Okay, I guess there may be a question on what’s the cause and what’s the effect on that one.   

8 ) Sully Sullivan * 2000 - 2009
Sullivan is a member of the “what if” club.  The what if club has four types of members:
1 - Players whose career was cut short by injuries
2 - Players who were already at an advanced age when the league began
3 - Players whose career never got started because they left baseball to pursue another career
4 – Players who were somehow stuck behind other players or stuck with an inactive owner

The last type likely doesn’t contain players that missed out on superstardom, but I feel for them nonetheless. 
Off the top of my head, a few players in each category:
1 – Ron Guinan, Daniel Peart, Freddy Valore, Dennis Boshears
2 – Jimmie Davis, Sully Sullivan
3 – Lee Manning, Bill George
4 – Lester Griffey

9) Clarence DiBenedetto 2005 - 2017
DiBennedetto’s career was spent between Massachusetts, Nevada and Kansas whereby he played for 3 owners that are now among the 50+ club – owners who have managed in the NPBL for 50 or more seasons.

Brian Cook will join this club at the conclusion of the 2076 season and Matt Yordy needs 6 more seasons to make the list.
In the past (CF #7, LF #8), I’ve considered which organization has the strongest ranking at the position.  I’m also interested to see which owner has the strongest set of right fielders.  First, to the question of organizational rankings…

When it comes to strength by owners, both Louisiana and Utah have split ownerships, so as far as total rank points, Rob Chapman tops the list.

Since different owners have managed for different lengths of seasons, the statistic to attempt to level the playing field would be Rank Points per Season.  Which brings an interesting result:

10) Francois Dussault * 2034 - 2050
Dussault is “Mr. Colonel” in the way that Ernie Banks is “Mr. Cub”.  Dussault was the one great star that the Kentucky franchise possessed during the organization spent in the bluegrass state.  Dussault won 3 Tyson Bacon Awards.  Two of those awards he won while only earning a WAR under 6.5.  There have been only 10 times that dubious feat has been accomplished.

That’s not to say that Dussault was the wrong choice.  I think it highlights the fact that, for whatever reason, Dussault does not score well in the WAR category.  He is not clearly any further behind any of the other candidates.  Take 2040 for example, the top FFL players were:

It’s also worth noting that the GEL appeared to have the bulk of the top players at the time.  The top candidates in 2040 (when Buzzy Stevens won the award) are more impressive than the FFL candidates.

League Press Releases / 75 for 75 - Center Field
« on: August 09, 2018, 07:31:43 AM »
1) Andy Ping * 2021 - 2036
Despite the fact that Andy Ping played his entire career with two other Hall of Famers (Donnie Bremer & Todd Neary), he never won an NPBL championship.  In fact, he never even played in the championship series.  This trio made the playoffs 9 times, but was always bounced before reaching the big stage.  As amazing as this seems, it is not unusual. 
The New Mexico Dukes of 2000-2020 had overlapping careers of four Hall of Famers: Tanner Chayse (2000-2017), Malachi Sain (2000-2010), Steven Williams (2002-2017) and John Baptista (2006-2020).  Yet the Dukes were only able to make the playoffs ONE time (2008), and in that single appearance they were knocked out in the LCS. 
In addition to that, the Michigan Militia of 2030 to 2050 also had 4 HoF with overlapping careers: Ed Hansen (2031-2048), Mark Sims (2037-2055), Rogelio Pessoa (2030-2043) and Keith Knapp (2030-2047).  Those players made the playoffs 11-13 times, but never reached the finals. 
Here is a list of all the Hall of Fame players that never played in a National Cup:
Player  Years     Team(s)      Years Reaching Playoffs         
Malachi Sain  2000 - 2010     NM      1         
Alex Garza  2000 - 2011     NV      1         
Samson Steele  2000 - 2011     KY/VA      2         
Tanner Chayse  2000 - 2017     NM      1         
Pete Kahle  2000 - 2019     KY/CT/ID/KS      4         
Rey Moncayo  2002 - 2014     MA/NV      0         
Steven Williams  2002 - 2017     NM      1         
Chris Lott  2005 - 2018     NV/PA      1         
John Baptista  2006 - 2020     NM      1         
Donnie Bremer  2017 - 2039     MD      9         
Todd Neary  2019 - 2037     MD      9         
Andy Ping  2021 - 2036     MD      9         
Carmelo Fons  2021 - 2036     PA/VA/ON/NJ      3         
Harry Andrews  2022 - 2038     NM      3         
Dale Couch  2026 - 2044     CO      3         
Todd Castillo  2028 - 2041     TX/CA/ID      8         
Clarence Smith  2030 - 2042     NY      6         
Rogelio Pessoa  2030 - 2043     MI      11         
Keith Knapp  2030 - 2047     MI      13         
Ed Hansen  2031 - 2048     MI      13         
Mark Sims  2037 - 2055     MI      12         
Specs Galloway  2048 - 2068     FL/UT      12         
Denny Willis  2049 - 2063     MI/IL/ID/FL      8         
Lewis Payne  2058 - 2070     HI      4         

2) Denny Willis * 2049 - 2063
Denny Wills had a tremendous power/speed combination as evidenced in the table below.
Player  Position     30/30 Seasons      40/40 Seasons         
Denny WillisCF84
Andy PingCF81
Tanner ChayseSS51
Christopher CorteseCF51
Hal Rehm1B50
Rudy LareauSS50
Jack Hesse2B41
Héctor VásquezRF40
Alex CabezasRF40
Felipe Gonzáles1B32
Dale CouchLF30
Leonardo SuárezLF30
Grubby ThompsonCF20
Cyril Foland2B20
Santo TedescoSS20
Skipper CageLF20
Oscar OakleyLF20
Bill LongLF20
Alex GarzaCF20
Rob DorseyCF20
Tim Martin2B11
Sanford Powers3B11
Stacey Tatham Jr.1B10
Rafael Cuellar1B10
Lane Commons2B10
Bob Medforth2B10
Tyson Bacon3B10
Jose Chavero3B10
Carlos Otero3B10
Jing-bo Kan3B10
Evan Adams3B10
Gandalf GreyhemeSS10
Mark DeliaSS10
Alejandro ReyesSS10
Spooner ShenkSS10
Judge JudyLF10
Steve MurrayLF10
John FleuryLF10
Roberto GarcíaLF10
Ewing WashingtonLF10
Kevin SarrattLF10
Mike CranwellLF10
Greg HoltCF10
Masafumi NishidaCF10
Steven HugganCF10
Jerry BakerCF10
Joe WilsonCF10
Clarence DiBenedettoRF10
Eric ClineRF10
Jess VillalobosRF10
Ignacio GarcíaRF10
Ramón BarrónRF10
Roberto SalazarRF10
Donald FickRF10
Sixto SolisRF10

3) Felton Olney * 2013 - 2029
In 2013, Felton Olney was the #2 overall draft choice.  He went on to win the Bick Horizon (Rookie of the Year) Award in the GEL that same year (2013).  Which of these two is more valuable?  Said another way: If your team was to be given either the Bick Award winner or the 1.02 draft slot, which would you choose?
The club of players that have won the Bick include some of the greatest of all-time: Walt Geldorf, Buzzy Stevens, Andy Dwyer, Santo Tedesco, Michael Koo Jr… but it also includes a fair number of players in which winning the Bick was the career highlight.  In fact, of the 140 players that won a Bick (in either league) between 2001 and 2070, 60 of those players did not make a 75 for 75 list.  Basically, that means that owning a Bick Award means you have a little better than a 50/50 chance of having an above-average career.
The average rank points for Bick winners is 27.21.  Recall that rank points is 76-Rank where rank is where the player was ranked on the 75 for 75 list, except for starting pitchers where rank points is (301-Rank)/4 (rounded up).  Knowing this average rank points value allows us to compare to the value of a draft slot (covered in LF Dale Couch #4).  Below is the table of draft slot values for the top 10:
Draft Position  Expected Rank Points     
Therefore, it is slightly more preferable to own the 1.02 draft slot than it is to own the Bick Award winner.

Free Agent/NYSL Claims / MA claims P Jesse Shaw
« on: July 25, 2018, 02:47:17 PM »
To AAA please

League Press Releases / 75 for 75 - Left Fielders
« on: July 24, 2018, 10:40:04 AM »
1) Summer Nelson * 2000 - 2021
Players who are ranked #1 at their position:
Pos  PlayerNumber of times winning the Bacon Award
Jocko Garcia4
1B  Walt Geldorf8
2B  Bob Griffith3
3B  Buzzy Stevens4
SS  Tanner Chayse4
LF  Summer Nelson0
It probably won’t spoil anything to declare that the top ranked CF and top ranked RF both won multiple Bacons as well.
Summer Nelson consistently put up excellent stats year after year, but never had a truly superb year which allowed him to take home the Bacon. It’s hard to argue that there was any year that Nelson should have won.  His best chance may have been in 2015, but instead the award went to his teammate Christopher Stormes:
Player - Year  Avg     HR      RBI          R      BB      K      SB      OBP         SLG      OPS      WAR      tvSTAT     
Christopher Stormes 2015.2824613198561150.348.5000.8488.17.07
Summer Nelson 2015.3303711597455311.386.5200.9068.28.18

2) Anthony Beckford * 2000 - 2013
Beckford is one of those guys to which I cannot associate with a particular team.  I suppose he should be considered a NY Baron, since he spent the most years there, but the years spent in the Big Apple were the twilight of his career.  His best years were in Colorado or Mississippi.
PlayerNumber of teams played for
Leonardo de la Rosa6
Grady McDonaghey5
Keith Tracey5
Walt Geldof4
Anthony Beckford4
Matt McQuade4
Grubby Thompson4
Cliff Butter4
Hank Carruthers4
Hongwu Zou4
Jerry Jorge4
Leo Flynn4
Karl Immell4
Andrew Wilson4
John Fleury4
Jorge Arreola4
Carlos Fimenez4
Joe Colin4
Christopher Delaney4
Lucio Costello4
Harvey Thornton4

Although I cannot associate a team to Beckford, Beckford does have one of the strongest associations to an MLB player for me: Ted Williams, probably because Beckford is the last (and only) NPBL player to hit over .400 in a season.  Williams was a better overall player than Beckford (more home runs and walks and less strikeouts), but Beckford was every bit the pure hitter that Williams was.
Beckford’s career batting average of .354 is tops in history of the league… by a wide margin.  The next closest retired player is Hector Dominez (.335), followed by Tanner Chayse (.334).  Of the major batting statistics, there are three career records that have a wide gap between #1 and #2:
Batting Average
1 – Anthony Beckford .354
2 – Hector Dominez .335
3 – Tanner Chayse .334
Total Bases
1 – Walt Geldorf 6839
2 – Mark Sims 6178
3 – Buzzy Stevens 6172
Career WAR
1 – Buzzy Stevens 171.8
2 – Tanner Chayse 146.2
3 – Tyson Bacon 145.4
Classifying these statistics as “unbreakable” records may be a bit of a stretch, but I will say that I’ll be surprised to see any of them go down.

3) Ethan Teller * 2020 - 2038
I found this on an old, old thread entitled “What to Watch for in 2027”:

- Is there a more anonymous super-star than Ethan Teller?
Ethan Teller bears a lot of similarities with Summer Nelson.  Both are right handed hitting outfielders who hit for good average and a lot of power.  Both had consistently excellent stats year after year, but never won a Bacon Award.  Both spent their careers with three different teams and their careers followed similar paths: traded from their initial team after 3-4 years, won multiple championships in their most memorable years with their second team, and finally traded to a third team looking for some veteran leadership to end their careers.

4) Dale Couch * 2026 - 2044
Dale Couch is one of three Hall of Famers to be drafted in the 2.02 draft slot.  The others were Chad Schmidt and Keith Knapp.  There are 5 additional players to make the 75 for 75 list that were drafted in the 2.02 slot:
2B Hamilton Bridges #46
3B Manuell Selas #48
SS Roberto Echegaray #29
CF Soze Liao
RF James Brewster

What is the value of a draft position?  In order to answer this question, I added up the “rank points” for each draft slot.  Rank points is simply 76-the players 75 for 75 ranking.
After I did this calculation, I realized a problem with the calculation: starting pitchers.  Namely, it’s difficult for a starting pitcher to make the 75/75 list.  In order to equal the playing field, I knew I needed to make some sort of an adjustment.  What I did is I looked at the HoF members.  There currently 146 players in the Hall.  With the exception of starting pitching, the distribution by position is roughly equal:
PositionHall of Fame Members
First Baseman14
Second Baseman12
Third Baseman10
Left Field12
Center Field10
Right Field14
Relief Pitcher6
This averages out to 11 players per position.  As for starting pitchers, there are 47 in the Hall.  Therefore I figured that the equivalent of a different position’s top 75 players is roughly about four times for starting pitchers.  So for starting pitchers, I used the 75/75 rankings going all the way up to #300.  The ranking points then became 301-Rank / 4 (rounded up).  In this way, the top 4 pitchers all receive 75 ranking points, and pitchers 5-8 receive 74 points, and so on.
Totaling up the points by draft slot yields the results shown in the graph below

The dotted curve represents a formulaic “curve of best fit”.  The formula works out so that the draft slot of 2.02 where Dale Couch was drafted has a Rank Points total of 219.85.  Since there have been 75 amateur drafts (not including the inaugural draft), that means the expected average for this draft slot is 2.93 – which equates to a player who is ranked #73.  In other words, having the draft slot of 2.02 should, on the average, give you a player who would be ranked #73 on the 75/75 list (or a starting pitcher ranked 288-291).  Anything less than that would have to be considered a disappointment.
What we’ve seen in reality is that the 2.02 slot has performed better than the expected (aided by the HoF players like Couch pulling the average).  The total rank points is 384, which connects to a player ranked #71.  That may seem like a small difference, but in this context it is a fairly significant difference.
5) Pete Kahle * 2000 - 2019
Pete Kahle was the first NPBL’er to reach 600 career home runs.  He retired with 605 home runs.  Since his retirement, he’s been passed by on the leaderboard by 5 players and will soon be passed by another.  The NPBL 600 home run club (7 players):
PlayerPosition RankHome Runs
Walt Geldorf1B #1752
Mark Sims1B #2739
Dale CouchLF #4681
Tony BustamanteRF674
Buzzy Stevens3B #1635
Pete KahleLF #5605
Bob Griffith (active)2B #1604
For comparison, here is the MLB 600 home run club (9 players):
PlayerPositionHome Runs
Barry BondsLF762
Hank AaronRF755
Babe RuthRF714
Alex RodriguezSS696
Willie MaysCF660
Ken Griffey JrCF630
Albert Pujols (active)1B630
Jim Thome1B612
Sammy SosaRF609

A few comparisons between the two groups that I find interesting:
NPBLNPBL AverageStatisticMLB AverageMLB
X.307Batting Average.298
105Stolen Bases232X

NPBL Hall of Fame / 2076 Ballot Discussion
« on: July 18, 2018, 08:23:02 AM »
I checked where each of the players was ranked in my 75 for 75 rankings.  In doing so, I realize that my ranking method for RP isn't at all where I'd like it to be.  I might need to re-do some things before I publish it.  Nevertheless, as it is right now, here are the rankings of the players on the ballot:

Jerry Baker - CF #33
Sesto Benetti - 2B #17
Jean-Francois Bois - C #37
Kermit Byndloss - CF #166
Mario Cabrera - CF #96
Miguel Calderon - CF #31
Bob Crosby - SS #43
Maximo Cruz - C #15
Antonio Garcia - 3B #35
Corey Miller - C #33
Cody Morris - RF #29
Armando Pagan - CF #46
Luis Perez - 1B #88
Joe Powell - SS #35
Juan Ramirez - 2B #64
Pedro Rivera - SS #58
Carlos Robles - RF #220
Jose Rodriguez - 3B #89
Marcos Rodriguez - C #42
Richard Samuels - CF #29
Ron Seldon - 2B #19
Javier Silva - 3B #15
Stacey Tatham Jr - 1B #29
Daniel Vazquez - 2B #37
Victor Wilkerson - RF #15
Bill Young - 3B #41

Barrel Andrews - SP #120
Doug Bean - SP #282
Roger Berry - RP #4
Old Nick Bradley - SP #824
Arnold Everall - RP #5
Jerome Link - SP #220
Ramon Lopez - RP #46
Chadwick McCall - SP #78
Javier Mediavilla - SP #152
Jim Page - SP #422
Jesus Ramirez - RP #7
William Vaughan - SP #188

I think the following players deserve consideration:
C Maximo Cruz (#15) - 9 of the top 12 ranked catchers are in the hall.  Another 2 of the top 12 are current players.  The last player (Andrew Jones) I think might be in the missing years.  Nobody outside of the top 12 is in the Hall.  Cruz is ranked #15, so he's right there on the edge.  Certainly deserves a very close look.
1B Stacey Tatham (#29) - 1B is a competitive position.  There are 1B ranked higher that are in the Hall (Paul Sidgwick).  Tatham has 2 Bacon Awards to his name (2049, 2052)
2B Sesto Benetti (#17) & Ron Seldon (#19).  Like C Cruz, they are ranked right on the edge of HoF and non-HoF.  They rank right behind HoFers Mark Stone (#15) and Mason Highsmith(#16) and ahead of Frank Gillbard (#20).
3B Javier Silva (#15) - Yet another player ranked right on that edge.  Ranks behind HoF Grady McDonaghey (#13) and Mitsuoki Rin (#14) and ahead of Issac Phillips (#17) and Carmelo Fons (#22).
SS Joe Powell (#35), Bob Crosby (#43) and Pedro Rivera (#58).  The line of SS in the HoF vs out of the HoF is also somewhere around 20ish.  So these guys are outside, but a case could be made.  There are some "outlier", higher ranked players that are in the HoF (like 2B Zachary Matthews & SS Luis Ortiz) due to great defense or other reasons.  And the 75/75 ranking is NOT the end all and be all measurement. 
CF Richard Samuels (#29), Miguel Calderon (#31), Jerry Baker (#33) & Armando Pagan (#46).  See my comments about the shortstops on the ballot.  The line for CF is also somewhere around 20ish.
RF Victor Wilkerson (#15).  Without revealing too much of my RF rankings, which haven't been published just yet, I'll say that Wilkerson is close to, but inside of the line where most of the HoF RF reside.  He is a fringe case that I'll likely be voting in favor of this time around.
RF Cody Morris (#29).  A little outside of the line, but maybe there is a case to be made?
SP Chadwick McCall (#78).  It says something about how competitive the SP market is, but the line for HoF starting pitchers is right around 75.
RP Roger Berry (#4), Arnold Everall (#5) and Jesus Ramirez (#7).  As I said earlier, I've found I don't like the rankings of the RP as I've currently got them and these rankings may change before I get to publishing the RP rankings.  But one way or the other, these are some of the better RP in the history.  The question is, how much value does a RP have?  There are currently only 6 RP in the HoF (John Baptista, Diego Castillo, Tyler Lattimore, Arron Ledford, Deangelo Ramos & Eneas Reigosa)

League Press Releases / 75 for 75 - Shortstops
« on: July 16, 2018, 03:50:04 PM »
1) Tanner Chayse * 2000 - 2017
As near as I can figure, these were each team’s created superstar at the inception of the league
DC – SP Skip Burns
California – 3B Tyson Bacon * (#2)
Colorado – LF Summer Nelson *
Connecticut – SS Gandalf Greyhemme * (#5)
Florida – SS Matt McQuade * (#2)
Illinois - ?
Kansas – SP Hoya Jung
Kentucky – LF Pete Kahle *
Louisiana – SP Scott Bartell *
Maryland – SS Norman Bates (#45)
Massachusetts – 3B (SS) Matthew Maglio (NR)
Minnesota – 2B Adam Anderson * (#11)
Mississippi – SP Ryan Turner *
Montana - 2B Brian Marshall * (#4)
Nevada – SS Mark Delia * (#8)
New Mexico – SS Tanner Chayse * (#1)
New York – C Christopher Ferrante * (#3)
North Carolina – SS Michael Koo Jr * (#6)
Oregon – SP Hugh Hoots (Originally named Chris Muller)
Pennsylvania – CF J.D. Arney
Tennessee – SP JJ Cobb
Texas – SP – Dmitrij Mitskevich
Washington – SS Jason Kroner * (#14)
Wisconsin – 2B (SS) Seamus O’Dule * (#3)

Of the 23 known players on this list, 15 turned out to be Hall of Famers.  Eighteen of them worked their way onto the 75 for 75 list for their position.  The five players who didn’t make a 75 for 75 list:
SP Skip Burns – Burns was a solid pitcher, having pitched in the majors for 20 years.  He would be ranked #131 among starting pitchers.  Considering that starting pitcher has the most competition for the 75 for 75, Burns is actually on par with position players like JD Arney and Norman Bates.  That is, quality players that did not make the Hall of Fame.
SP Hoya Jung – Catobase shows that Hoya Jung suffered a fairly major ratings drop in 2005 at the age of 24.  Perhaps it was injury related?
3B Matthew Maglio – His development seemed to hit a snag.  He was traded to Wisconsin (just before I took over the team) and he did have 10+ productive years for the Lumberjacks.   They just were not special.
SP Hugh Hoots – Similar to Skip Burns.  He was an excellent starter for several different organizations.  He would be ranked #105 among starting pitchers – which is really good, just not Hall of Fame material.
SP Dmitrij Mitskevich – Was on pace to become a Hall of Famer, but he suffered a career ending injury in 2006 at the age of 24.
The created players by position:
C – 1
2B – 2
3B – 1
SS – 9 (includes 2 players created as SS, but shifted positions)
OF – 3
SP - 7

2) Matt McQuade * 2003 - 2020
One of only three players to steal 100 bases in a season.  All three are shortstops.
Is the stolen base coming back into fashion?  The average number of stolen bases per season by decade is shown in the table below.
DecadeAvg SB per year
While the total number of stolen bases appears to be on the rebound, what is also interesting to note is the way the stolen bases are being dispersed.  In the first three decades, there was more of a polarizing “players who stole bases” and “players who did not”.  The table below shows the average number of 50+ stolen base seasons per decade.
DecadeAvg Number of 50+ SB seasons
Therefore, when one looks at the stolen base records both by season and career totals, the lists are dominated by players from the first three decades.
In addition to being one of the most proficient base stealers, Matt McQuade was also among the most efficient.  He was successful on 81.4% of his attempts.  The most efficient was Alfonso Camino with 89.1% (minimum 300 attempts).  In fact, he leads this category by a wide margin.
PlayerCareer SB%
Alfonso Camino89.1%
Mike Doctor84.7%
Greg Holt84.4%
Abe Seemann84.3%
Blair Payton84.2%

3) Santo Tedesco * 2019 - 2042
Speaking of stolen bases… during the first half of career, Santo Tedesco averaged stolen base every 6 games (about 27 stolen bases a season).  Over the second half of his career, Tedesco would average only a stolen base every 23 games (about 7 stolen bases a season).  It appears something suddenly zapped him of his speed around 2029.  Nevertheless, he remained a top shortstop for another 10 years after that. 
PlayerNumber of Years as the League’s Top SS
Santo Tedesco11
Tanner Chayse9
Kevin Stover7
Miguel Carrasco6
Rudy Lareau5
Bob Sloan 5
Juan Vidro 5
Francisco Magana 4
Arturo Esquiuel 4
Ramiro Rivera 4
Matt McQuade2
Flyswatter Pentecost2
Rafael Marrero2
Michael Koo Jr1
Gandalf Greyheme1
Ángel Román1
Johnny Kapaun1
Bryan Lawrence1
Will Dixon1
Joe Powell1
Pedro Rivera1
António Ortíz1
Manuel Montaño1

4) Miguel Carrasco * 2032 - 2056
Player / YearTop WAR season to NOT win Bacon
Miguel Carrasco 204012.2
Matt McQuade 201511.4
Matt McQuade 200711.3
Francisco Magana 200111.0
Lewis Payne 206111.0
Tomas Chavez 203910.9
Tomas Chavez 204110.9
Buzzy Stevens 203110.9
Tanner Chayse 201010.8
In 2040, Carrasco was playing for Texas in the GEL.  The GEL Bacon Award winner that year was Buzzy Stevens of Minnesota – who had a 12.3 WAR.  The Bacon Award went to the rightful owner, it’s just that Carrasco had the misfortune of playing in the same league as Stevens.  The FFL Bacon Winner in 2040 was Francois Dussault with a WAR of 6.4.

5) Gandalf Greyheme * 2003 - 2020
Greyheme played for some of the great New York teams of the first two decades.  The Barons had a bit of a reputation in those early days for choking in the playoffs.  For a stretch of nine years, 2003 to 2011, the Barons averaged 109 wins a season and yet only won one NPBL title (2008).  The “eyeball test” says that the Barons ought to have been able to win more championships than 1 during that era, but how many should they have won?
There have been 64 seasons where a team has won 109 games or more.  In 16 of those season (25%), the team won the championship.  If the Barons had had exactly 109 wins each season for each of those 9 years, the math says they ought to have won 2.25 championships.  I thought maybe I could develop something perhaps a little more precise. 
WinsTimes AchievedChampionsPercent
100 or more2143918.22%
101 or more1883619.15%
102 or more1703420.00%
103 or more1493221.48%
104 or more1323022.73%
105 or more1182319.49%
106 or more1002020.00%
107 or more831720.48%
108 or more721622.22%
109 or more641625.00%
110 or more521325.00%
111 or more431125.58%
112 or more34823.53%
113 or more29827.59%
The math starts to get a little funny with teams that have won 114+ games simply because the frequency isn’t enough.  Using some of the data from the table above and a little bit of my own discernment, I worked out a formula which equates to the graph shown below.

A look then at the New York Barons from 2003 to 2011:
The sum total of the percentages is 239.34%.  Which means mathematically, the Barons ought to have won 2.39 championships during this period.
Using this method over the history of the NPBL for each franchise:
FranchiseMathematical TitlesActual Titles
New Jersey3.241
New York3.191
Rhode Island0.640
Kansas 2.01.782
North Carolina2.972
Kansas 1.01.122
New Mexico1.811

Free Agent/NYSL Claims / Massachusetts signs Máximo Vega
« on: July 09, 2018, 09:36:43 AM »
From NYSL.  Please assign to A

Trades / Massachusetts - Virginia
« on: July 09, 2018, 07:49:23 AM »
Massachusetts sends:
2077 First round pick
2077 Fourth round pick
P Gilbert Newcomb (A)
P Frank Williams (A)
SS David Russell (A)

Virginia sends:
P Jesse Morris
IF Jonathan Robinson
OF Tim White

Good luck with the rebuild yuda.

Chappy, I'll post some instructions in the Sim Instructions thread.

League Press Releases / 75 for 75 - Third Basemen
« on: July 05, 2018, 12:48:45 PM »
1) Buzzy Stevens * 2028 - 2046
Buzzy Stevens and Tyson Bacon may rank as the best 2 position players of all time.  They are certainly two of the top five.  Determining the better of the two is difficult.  Buzzy Stevens ranks as the best third baseman in the league from 2030 through 2045 – an incredible 16 straight years.  Not to be outdone, Tyson Bacon was the top third baseman from 2001 through 2016 – also 16 straight years.  The next closest to this record is Bob Griffith with 11 straight years.  In the end, what drives Stevens ahead of Bacon is that his power numbers and OPS are impressive even beyond Tyson Bacon’s stolen bases.  (See table below). 
Player - Year  Avg     HR      RBI          R      BB      K      SB      OBP         SLG      OPS      WAR      tvSTAT     
Buzzy Stevens 2035.35646131144134564.482.6781.1612.111.56
Buzzy Stevens 2031.34347133139133532.471.6631.13410.911.02
Buzzy Stevens 2034.3755116013796538.464.7281.19212.810.88
Buzzy Stevens 2036.28626126105114710.406.4760.8827.110.09
Buzzy Stevens 2032.31333109138124564.441.5601.0018.69.95
Tyson Bacon 2015.3302899126742474.411.5180.9299.29.14
Tyson Bacon 2010.3332693101692251.413.5370.959.58.84
Tyson Bacon 2011.328268383541640.400.5420.9427.38.8
Tyson Bacon 2014.3263597112673559.400.5590.9599.38.79
Tyson Bacon 2012.3302378100672463.406.5010.9078.28.7

2) Tyson Bacon * 2000 - 2022
One of the things I find fascinating about Tyson Bacon is his development as far as avoiding the strikeouts.  Early in his career, with California, Bacon would strike out about 20% of his plate appearances.  Right about the time he was traded to Colorado, his strikeouts per PA suddenly dropped down to about 5%.  He went from striking out over 100 times a year to merely 25.  I’d say it was a Colorado coaching advantage, but the other Ram batters of the era, Christopher Cortese, Hal Rehm, Antony Kissel, Oscar Oakley, would regularly strikeout 100 to 150 times each year.

3) Jose Chavero * 2022 - 2041
After selecting Chavero with the 7th overall pick in the 2021 draft, Chavero had 8 outstanding years for the Illinois Jethawks – including a Bacon Award in 2028 and two titles for the Jethawks in 2027 and 2028.  In 2031, at the age of 29, Chavero suffered a devastating back injury that sidelined him for nine months.  The Jethawks, seeking a rebuild, traded to Chavero to Louisiana in a controversial trade.  Chavero would bounce back to win another Bacon Award in 2033 (this time in a Blaze uniform) and lead Louisiana to the playoffs for five straight years before being traded off to Idaho to finish his career.  The number of wins for Chavero’s teams:
2022 (IL) - 72
2023 (IL) – 84
2024 (IL) – 96
2025 (IL) – 94
2026 (IL) – 94
2027 (IL) – 105
2028 (IL) – 114
2029 (IL) – 103
2030 (IL) – 107
2031 (LA) – 91
2032 (LA) – 112
2033 (LA) – 110
2034 (LA) – 100
2035 (LA) – 93
2036 (ID) – 105
2037 (ID) – 91
2038 (ID) – 72
2039 (ID) – 94
2040 (ID) – 88
Which averages to 96 wins a season.  Only 2 losing seasons out of 19.  I don’t know if that’s a record, but it’s got to be pretty close.

The Louisiana all-time team (player must play at least parts of 3 seasons for the Blaze to qualify):
C – Andrew Kegler (rank #9)
1B – Hank Carruthers (11)
2B – Blinky Crouch (7)
3B – Jose Chavero (3)
SS – Francisco Magana (27)
LF – Toshinobu Kashiwagi (18)
CF – Juan Cruz (56)
RF – Jeffrey Langston (13)
SP – Ralph Ives (28)
RP – Ben Stewart (16)

4) Sanford Powers * 2014 - 2032
Earlier (1B #6) I looked at the biggest fluke season.  Looking over the year-by-year career of Sanford Powers, there is a case to be made for the 2nd overall pick in 2014.  Actually, Powers does not enter the conversation for a single fluke season, but for a two year span, 2024 and 2025 are definitive outliers.  For whatever reason, Powers suddenly and unexpectedly increased nearly every statistical category in those two years and pocketed the Bacon Award in both years.  Then in 2026, Powers settled back into this normal self – which was undoubtedly impressive, but not other-worldly.

5) Cristián Morales 2050 - 2067
Cristian Morales was selected fifth overall in the 2047 draft.  The 2047 was one of the deepest of all-time, with 14 players from the draft class making the top 75 list and 3 current Hall of Famers (Stone Nichols 1.02, Specs Galloway 1.17, & Mitsuoki Rin 1.21).  Is it the best draft class?  Probably not, but as with most things, it depends on how you want to measure it.
Draft ClassTop 75 playersHall of Fame playersHoFers
2040241Walt Geldorf (1.01)
2031185Eddie Henderson (1.03), Daniel Metcalf (1.04), Ed Hansen (1.05), Greyson Krueger (1.11), Matt Carter (1.23)
2033163Francois Dussault (1.02), Tony Bustamante (1.05), Ricardo Acevedo (1.08)
2018144Paul Hall (1.01), Roderigo Pequero (1.04), Paul Sidgwick (1.06), Ralph Ives (2.10)
2020144Toshinobu Kashiwagi (1.01), Ethan Teller (1.03), Bill Hawking (1.05), Bill Dickie (2.06)
2047143Stone Nichols (1.02), Specs Galloway (1.17), Mitsuoki Rin (1.21)

6) Christopher Stormes * 2006 - 2023
The Tennessee Hounds All-Time Team:
C – Jocko Garcia (Rank #1)
1B – Jacinto Leon (14)
2B – Ron Seldon (18)
3B – Christopher Stormes (6)
SS – Johnny Kapaun (18)
LF – Jerry Jorge (19)
CF - Wenjie Laverick (44)
RF – Luis Cordova (11)
SP – JJ Cobb (74)
RP – Arron Ledford (25)

7) Alex Orati 2042 - 2060
Orati was the first overall pick in 2042.  He is one of only three third baseman to be drafted #1 overall.  The others being Buzzy Stevens (ranked #1) in 2028 and Dacio Herrara (#57) in 2025. However, all of the top 10 third baseman were drafted in the first round (except Tyson Bacon who was created).  In fact, you have to go down to player #18 Sergio Lopez to find a player that was NOT drafted in the first round.  Player #25 Alex Orozco was an undrafted free agent who was scooped up by Hawaii.  In all there are thirteen top 75 players that were undrafted free agents. 
61BAngel Martinez *
14LFBubba Godwin
253BAlex Orozco
272BElmer Green
362BJonathan Robinson
383BJonathan Darby
48RPTyler Lattimore *
51SSBill Gilbert
58RPAlfonso Font
64CFNathaniel Keevil
66RPEd Cook
73SSTed Riley
752BBill Hancock

8 ) Donnie Bremer * 2017 - 2039
Top 75 players who have played 23 years or more and played for a single team
Carlos Garcia2039-206224North Carolina
Donnie Bremer2017-203923Maryland
Peter Potter2037-205923Florida
Jarrod Perkins2042-206423California
Luis Ortiz2015-203723Wisconsin
Juan Garcia2047-206923Virginia
Arron Ledford Jr2041-206323Louisiana
David Blumberg2035-205723North Carolina

9) Carlos Otero 2063 - 2075
Active All-Team:
C1 Jocko García Tennessee Hounds
1B4 Sonny Miller Massachusetts Patriots
2B1 Bob Griffith Georgia Generals
3B9Carlos OteroTennessee Hounds
SS? Ramiro Rivera California Lions
LF? Bill Barry Wisconsin Lumberjacks
CF? Fred Hoffman Utah Scorpions
RF? Robert Alarron Maryland Admirals
SP? Andy Dwyer Pennsylvania Freedom
RP? Camila Mont Maryland Admirals

10) Taylor Dye 2036 - 2055
In 2042, the NPBL contracted by 4 teams with New York, Texas, Rhode Island and Kansas going extinct.  The players of these organizations were placed into a contraction draft.  Taylor Dye was 29 years old and had just finished his 7th straight year of hitting over .300 with the New York Barons.  The Florida Bluefish made Dye the 17th overall player taken in that draft.  In all there were 13 position players taken in the first round of the contraction draft.
Player Draft Position Team Player Performance after 2042
RF Roberto Salazar 1.01KansasImmediately traded to Washington.  Salazar had about 5 decent years, three of which were among the top 10 for right fielders for the year.  Short career.  Had to be considered a disappointment given his draft position and the promise he seemed to have.
RF Gonzalo Molina1.03Pennsylvania12 years among the top 10 for right fielders, but only once was he better than 4th at his position.  A solid all-star type player, but no hall of famer. 
SS Miguel Carrasco 1.07MarylandAlthough Carrasco’s best years were prior to 2043.  He still contributed eight top 10 SS seasons for the Admirals including 2 years and the best shortstop in the league. 
SS James Shields 1.09Tennessee12 years as a “hold down the fort” type of player for the Hounds.
RF Kyle Winfield 1.10IdahoAfter a couple of very promising seasons to begin his Spuds career, Winfield fought for playing time for the remainder of his career.
CF Kazunori Sato 1.12UtahEither he changed his name, or he never made the big league.
C Glenn Steger 1.13KentuckyOne of the most recognizable names in the pool, Steger was already 37 years old at the time of the contraction draft.  Never a star during his Kentucky years.  Steger was a contributor for a couple years and a hanger-onner for another two.
RF Ewing Washington 1.15OhioHit some home runs, but struggled everywhere else.  A part-time player at best.
RF Nelson Galvan 1.16HawaiiHis career started well, but de-railed quickly.
3B Taylor Dye 1.17Florida8 years among the top 10 at his position after arriving in Florida.  Dye’s best years proved to be back in New York, but he was nonetheless a steady performer for the Bluefish.
CF Carlos Solis 1.19North CarolinaSolis was a regular in the lineup for the Clippers for most the next thirteen years.  However, as a starter, he was below average.
1B Matt Lancaster1.20NevadaImmediately traded to Kansas (although he would return to Nevada later in his career).  His entire career came after the contraction draft and Lancaster is the 40th ranked 1B.  Turned out to be one of the top players in the draft.
SS Barrett Rowe 1.21VirginiaAnother one of the top players in the draft.  He had 10 years as one of the top shortstops in the league.

With hindsight, I think the best position players, given what they had to contribute after 2042, were
1   Miguel Carrasco
2   Barrett Rowe
3   Gonzalo Molina
4   Taylor Dye
5   Matt Lancaster

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