Author Topic: 2076 Ballot Discussion  (Read 806 times)

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Offline MassGM

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2076 Ballot Discussion
« on: July 18, 2018, 08:23:02 AM »
I checked where each of the players was ranked in my 75 for 75 rankings.  In doing so, I realize that my ranking method for RP isn't at all where I'd like it to be.  I might need to re-do some things before I publish it.  Nevertheless, as it is right now, here are the rankings of the players on the ballot:

Jerry Baker - CF #33
Sesto Benetti - 2B #17
Jean-Francois Bois - C #37
Kermit Byndloss - CF #166
Mario Cabrera - CF #96
Miguel Calderon - CF #31
Bob Crosby - SS #43
Maximo Cruz - C #15
Antonio Garcia - 3B #35
Corey Miller - C #33
Cody Morris - RF #29
Armando Pagan - CF #46
Luis Perez - 1B #88
Joe Powell - SS #35
Juan Ramirez - 2B #64
Pedro Rivera - SS #58
Carlos Robles - RF #220
Jose Rodriguez - 3B #89
Marcos Rodriguez - C #42
Richard Samuels - CF #29
Ron Seldon - 2B #19
Javier Silva - 3B #15
Stacey Tatham Jr - 1B #29
Daniel Vazquez - 2B #37
Victor Wilkerson - RF #15
Bill Young - 3B #41

Barrel Andrews - SP #120
Doug Bean - SP #282
Roger Berry - RP #4
Old Nick Bradley - SP #824
Arnold Everall - RP #5
Jerome Link - SP #220
Ramon Lopez - RP #46
Chadwick McCall - SP #78
Javier Mediavilla - SP #152
Jim Page - SP #422
Jesus Ramirez - RP #7
William Vaughan - SP #188

I think the following players deserve consideration:
C Maximo Cruz (#15) - 9 of the top 12 ranked catchers are in the hall.  Another 2 of the top 12 are current players.  The last player (Andrew Jones) I think might be in the missing years.  Nobody outside of the top 12 is in the Hall.  Cruz is ranked #15, so he's right there on the edge.  Certainly deserves a very close look.
1B Stacey Tatham (#29) - 1B is a competitive position.  There are 1B ranked higher that are in the Hall (Paul Sidgwick).  Tatham has 2 Bacon Awards to his name (2049, 2052)
2B Sesto Benetti (#17) & Ron Seldon (#19).  Like C Cruz, they are ranked right on the edge of HoF and non-HoF.  They rank right behind HoFers Mark Stone (#15) and Mason Highsmith(#16) and ahead of Frank Gillbard (#20).
3B Javier Silva (#15) - Yet another player ranked right on that edge.  Ranks behind HoF Grady McDonaghey (#13) and Mitsuoki Rin (#14) and ahead of Issac Phillips (#17) and Carmelo Fons (#22).
SS Joe Powell (#35), Bob Crosby (#43) and Pedro Rivera (#58).  The line of SS in the HoF vs out of the HoF is also somewhere around 20ish.  So these guys are outside, but a case could be made.  There are some "outlier", higher ranked players that are in the HoF (like 2B Zachary Matthews & SS Luis Ortiz) due to great defense or other reasons.  And the 75/75 ranking is NOT the end all and be all measurement. 
CF Richard Samuels (#29), Miguel Calderon (#31), Jerry Baker (#33) & Armando Pagan (#46).  See my comments about the shortstops on the ballot.  The line for CF is also somewhere around 20ish.
RF Victor Wilkerson (#15).  Without revealing too much of my RF rankings, which haven't been published just yet, I'll say that Wilkerson is close to, but inside of the line where most of the HoF RF reside.  He is a fringe case that I'll likely be voting in favor of this time around.
RF Cody Morris (#29).  A little outside of the line, but maybe there is a case to be made?
SP Chadwick McCall (#78).  It says something about how competitive the SP market is, but the line for HoF starting pitchers is right around 75.
RP Roger Berry (#4), Arnold Everall (#5) and Jesus Ramirez (#7).  As I said earlier, I've found I don't like the rankings of the RP as I've currently got them and these rankings may change before I get to publishing the RP rankings.  But one way or the other, these are some of the better RP in the history.  The question is, how much value does a RP have?  There are currently only 6 RP in the HoF (John Baptista, Diego Castillo, Tyler Lattimore, Arron Ledford, Deangelo Ramos & Eneas Reigosa)

Offline MassGM

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Re: 2076 Ballot Discussion
« Reply #1 on: July 20, 2018, 09:48:52 AM »
I don't see it for Barrel Andrews.

I think his very very best years are 2053, 2057, and 2060.  In those 3 years, he is, at best, the 5th best pitcher in the league.  In all of his other years, he is no better than the 10th best in the league.

2053
PlayerW-L    ERA    K       BB    WHIP    FIP   
Luis Polanco19-11.80182410.962.46
Jorge Martinez15-102.72238511.002.45
Doodles Colbert20-62.22188450.972.57
Tim Perry18-72.72192591.133.37
Barrel Andrews19-112.89187961.203.16

2057
PlayerW-L    ERA    K       BB    WHIP    FIP   
William Vaughan11-61.6990300.872.88
Andy Dwyer12-62.33167861.173.10
Arron Ledford14-82.60171651.162.83
Jorge Gonzalez14-92.38159681.172.94
Barrel Andrews20-102.77168911.153.33

2060
PlayerW-L    ERA    K       BB    WHIP    FIP   
Andy Dwyer20-91.89251450.962.06
Mark Duncan18-102.63245921.152.62
Ronald Wood20-51.85139381.012.71
Jorge Martinez19-102.35175400.962.76
Barrel Andrews19-92.56173721.083.22

In 2053, Eric Carver, Chris Hull and Alonso Martinez are pretty close to Andrews.

In 2057, I might even take Santino Zacagnini, Jorge Martinez and Mark Duncan ahead of Andrews.

In 2060, one could also consider Luis Polanco, Javier Mediavilla and Ramon Costa.

And remember, we are talking about Andrews' best years.  This just doesn't look the resume of a Hall of Famer to me.  Am I missing something?

Offline yuda

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Re: 2076 Ballot Discussion
« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2018, 11:57:30 AM »
I voted for Andrews last year, but heís pretty borderline for me and Iím not sure what Iím going to do this year yet. Heís one of those guys who had a relatively low peak value but maintains a solid amount of value for a long time.

One of the things I look at is kind of a bucketing of seasons by WAR. Basically, Players with 3-6 WAR in a season probably had an all-star calibre year. 6-9 is an MVP/Yim quality season. Above 9 is a season for the ages. (This isnít perfect, and WAR isnít perfect, but bear with me.)

Somewhat interestingly, Andrews has zero seasons in in that 9+ category, and just one in the MVP category (2053, and just barely at that with the WAR being 6.1). But he has 15 in the all-star category, which is really pretty excellent. Itís the most on the current ballot. Corey Miller has 14, and then Bob Crosby, Miguel Calderon, and Javier Mediavilla all have 13.

You see a similar split if you look at his JAWS score. (JAWS is the average of a playerís career WAR with the WAR from his 7-best seasons). Andrewsís career WAR is 70 (second highest on this ballot) but his peak WAR is only 36.8, which puts at least a dozen players ahead of him from this ballot alone. (His JAWS score is 53.4, which puts him in my ďborderlineĒ area - above 60, I usually vote for them without much more investigation; below 50, it usually takes somebody to make a case to me.)

So Iím not sure what to do on Andrews yet. In many ways heís a classic compiler, but he was still providing good value to his team for most of that... itís not like those guys who hang on for a decade just above replacement value and rack up empty wins or saves.


Offline yuda

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Re: 2076 Ballot Discussion
« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2018, 05:32:16 PM »
I think I'm leaning toward focusing more on high peaks than long contributing careers. Making some tweaks to how I look at things but will post more in a day or two.

Offline MassGM

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Re: 2076 Ballot Discussion
« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2018, 07:24:12 PM »
Im only able to navigate through my phone right now, so it's hard for look up too much, but from what I recall I wasn't very impressed with Andrews as a compiler either.  For instance I remember looking at the career leader board for Wins and seeing many other players around him who never got a sniff as a HoF candidate.

Offline yuda

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Re: 2076 Ballot Discussion
« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2018, 06:23:57 AM »
Yeah he might be helped by being on a weak ballot.